In the next 30 years, the fault that U.S. Geological Survey has stated that there is a strong earthquake may occur within the next 30 years. After a 3.6 magnitude earthquake struck along the Hayward fault in northern California, over the weekend.
The chances of a magnitude-7 earthquake from the Hayward Fault striking San Francisco in the next 30 years stands at over 50%, as stated by the U.S. Geological Survey.
In the case of a seismic temblor of magnitude 7, the USGS’s HayWired Earthquake Scenario estimates that 8900 people would perish, 16,000 would sustain injuries, and direct business interruption losses might total more than $82 billion.
According to seismologist Lucy Jones, “if you give me enough time,” there is a 100% chance that an earthquake will strike the Hayward Fault.
“It could happen tomorrow. … don’t know when… [but] it will happen,” Earthquake engineering expert Keith Porter told USA Today.
Adding that if the earthquake measured 6.7 or greater and the probability of a 7.5 earthquake was 20%, the chances of an earthquake hitting San Francisco within the next 30 years rose to 72%. As USGS estimates that over 22,000 people may need rescue from stuck elevators, and another 2,400 people may need assistance from buildings that have collapsed.
Additionally, for an earthquake measuring magnitude 6.7, 46% for an earthquake measuring magnitude 7, and 31% for an earthquake measuring magnitude 7.5. The USGS also posited that the chances of an earthquake hitting Los Angeles in the next thirty years were 60%.
32 times more energy is released when an earthquake’s magnitude increases by a whole number. “A magnitude 5.3 earthquake is a moderate earthquake, and a magnitude 6.3 earthquake is a strong earthquake,” says the USGS.
On October 21, 1868, a significant earthquake with a magnitude of between 6.8 and 7.2 was recorded on the Hayward Fault. The University of California, Berkeley researchers found that there had been an average interval of 140 years between the fault’s previous five significant earthquakes. The Hayward Fault runs from the Gulf of California to Cape Mendocino in the north and is a part of the San Andreas Fault system, which is where the North American and Pacific tectonic plates meet.
The East Bay, San Francisco, and the San Francisco Peninsula all reported being impacted by the Hayward Fault earthquake over the weekend, according to the USGS.
Read it here: pubs.er.usgs.gov