This presidential race has been anything but predictable. Joe Biden stepped down after facing a storm of criticism from within his own party, with his cognitive health drawing fire from both sides of the aisle. With Biden out, Kamala Harris jumped into the spotlight—though her lack of any real achievements has left many questioning her ability to lead.
In a surprising turn, Harris held a lead in some summer polls, though skeptics were quick to point out issues with methodology. Fast-forward to now, with just days until Election Day, and a fresh poll has completely upended the race.
Enter Donald Trump, surging ahead. The latest numbers reveal Trump is pulling in support in what’s shaping up to be one of the tightest presidential elections in recent history.
According to a recent AtlasIntel poll conducted between October 25 and 29, among 3,032 likely voters, Trump has edged ahead of Harris, pulling in 49.5% of the vote compared to Harris’s 47%.
This isn’t just a slight edge. In a head-to-head scenario, Trump’s lead grows even more solid, showing 49.8% to Harris’s 48.1%. Independent and undecided voters appear to be leaning toward Trump, adding fuel to the momentum in these final days. Green Party candidate Jill Stein, on the other hand, only managed to capture 0.8%, leaving the real contest between Trump and Harris. And when voters were asked which candidate they rejected “more,” a telling 50.1% pointed to Harris, compared to 48.6% for Trump.
AtlasIntel isn’t the only poll in Trump’s favor. A New York Times/Siena College poll also shows Trump narrowly leading by a single point—47% to 46%.
It’s a razor-thin margin, but in a race this close, every point counts. Breitbart’s Wendell Husebo reports that early voting trends—especially in swing states—are showing signs of a strong turnout for Trump, which could tilt the scales even more in his favor.
Broadening the view, an Economist/YouGov poll found that when Americans were asked who they thought would win, 39% said Trump, while 36% believed Harris would take it. And the remaining 25%? They’re still on the fence, representing a substantial pool of undecided voters that could decide the race.
Early Voting’s Impact on the Election
Early voting has reshaped election dynamics, and in battleground states, early numbers hint at strong support for Trump. Political analyst Mark Halperin remarked that “the election will be over on election day before we know who votes,” suggesting that Trump’s advantage in early voting could become a decisive factor.
If turnout trends hold in critical states like Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio, Harris may be facing a tough fight on Election Day.
Can Harris Swing the Momentum Back?
Harris isn’t new to scrutiny, especially from conservative voters who have long been critical of her credentials. While she did lead in some polls earlier this year, questions about her record and Biden’s sudden exit from the race have put her campaign on shaky ground.
With Trump’s support surging, Harris’s path to November 5 has gotten steeper. Now, she’s not just aiming to secure her base—she’s also fighting to bring in undecided and moderate voters who may be wary of both candidates.
As the clock ticks down, we can expect Harris’s team to make major pushes in key urban areas, hoping to spark enough enthusiasm to counter Trump’s rising momentum. But with Trump now holding a lead in multiple polls, she’ll need more than just her base; she’ll need a last-minute pull with independents who aren’t yet convinced.
